Report 2: Assessing the Global Scenario Group: The great transition

Source: http://tellus.org/publications/files/branchpt.pdf (Now assessed with assessment tools devised by the TaoOfForesight)

Source:

• http://www.gsg.org/gsgpub.html
• http://tellus.org/publications/files/branchpt.pdf
• Technical description here (download difficulties): http://www.tellus.org/publications/files/TheCenturyAhead_TechDoc.pdf
• / Reason for its benchmarking there: Passed the World-System approach cross-check: A showcase of the "biogenic turn" has been identified, so that resilience is the common denominator.
• / The small world approach was originally worked out by that ^[1]).

FOCUS Checklist

GENERAL INFORMATION

Name: method name: THE GREAT TRANSITON: Plausibility narrative on security during the great transition:

Author: organization/department name: ,

Type of Result: indicate type of the final out-put: Narrative that is a parcel of an entire World System reagibility scenario.

In-puts and out-puts: indicate the in-puts needed to carry out the method and the out-puts of the process

Cost: indicate the average cost of implementation of the method (economic [€] and human resources [man-hour]).n/a

Time requirements: indicate the average time required to execute the method until the results are obtained. Specify preparation time, implementation time and recompilation/analysis time of the information gathered if suitable

The GSG went now open source to start a Global transition initiative run by virtual communities

End-User involvement: indicate if user involved in the study, and in which phase (definition of the scenarios, analysis, etc.).How the end-user is involved: indicate how the end-user is involved in study (interviews, questionnaires, workshops, etc.)

paraphrased by the SERF-Foresight methodology: Alternative futures to the European "great narrative" (Plachetka, Munoz 2009). Pre-Copenhagen summit 2009.

Other requirements: indicate other specific requirements (if needed) that go beyond necessary economic or human resources, to carry out the method.

FOCUS APPLICABILITY

Best practices applicable to FOCUS: best practices that can be implemented and used within the FOCUS methodology

No dogmas on certain socio-economic configurations. Even visionary models such as the "Globally Integrated Village Environment" as backed by the European Broadband Initiative and based in Vienna - Austria can act as input for scenarios. This includes also the reduction of the "enemy bias" - people within the vulnerable security environment are not subject to target acquisition procedures, but should be involved by pro-active political tools.

Inconveniences of its application to FOCUS: inconveniences that make the method not suitable to FOCUS.

To work with the results of the Global Scenario Group a profound cultural memory is a necessity to enable a check the plausibility of some of their assumptions'''.

Implementation phase: indicate to what “possible phase” corresponding to the future FOCUS methodology could it be applied (definition, execution or analysis of scenarios, definition of EU roles, identification of technologies, definition of roadmaps, etc.)

This can be done by comparative small world analysis i.e. comparisons of the evolutionary pathways of different world systems ^[2].

Complexity: indicate the level of difficulty of use of the method and its implementation in relation with FOCUS work plan (there is a 4 month time frame for each thematic scenario development)

As having worked already with this tool, we found a viable strategy to reduce its complexity by comparative world-system research.

Required adaptations: indicate “possible” required adaptations of the methodology in order to be applied to FOCUS.

IT support: indicate if the method is supported by any IT tool, or if it feasible to be supported or not by an IT implemented process

The Polestar System: http://www.polestarproject.org/polestar_sys.html

Objective oriented data base;

DESCRIPTION OF THE METHOD

Include the description of the method

Based on the Pole-Star project that can work with heterogenous scales of models and dimensions: http://www.polestarproject.org/polestar_sys.html in contrast to case #1 which heads to an overall standardization====

Global scenario group: The possible results depending on the impactors to change the present system evolution pathway

PROCESS

Include method diagram (phases, steps).

Identify core problems and frame analysis. Tool: Framing checklist. Result: Definition of scope. Establish the closed loop with feedbacks, so that all steps indicated are repeated with the results stored in the stack space (p.14).

^[1] The data base has been devised by the Journal of World System research ( JWSR

^[2] Basis: Turchin,P; Hall, Th. D "Spatial Synchronicity among and within World Systems. Insights from theorectical ecology" Journal of World System Research 4(1), 2003,pp.37-64, here